Economics & Finance · Published 2026-09-18
The hurdle rate just went up.
A September 2026 market commentary on risk, liquidity and the choices facing Kenyan investors.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are hovering around 5%. At those levels, every risky asset—stocks, bonds, gold, crypto—has to work harder to justify its place in a portfolio.
But this is not necessarily the moment to retreat.
Oil has eased toward $105, the Kenya shilling remains below KSh130/$, global equity valuations are improving, and recent NSE weakness is beginning to create more interesting entry points.
My takeaway:
• Keep liquidity high. • Keep fixed-income duration short. • Build global exposure gradually. • Watch quality NSE stocks as valuations reset. • Treat gold as a hedge, not a trade. • Avoid unnecessary leverage.
The bigger lesson is simple:
When uncertainty rises, the answer is not always to stop investing. Sometimes it is to become more selective about what deserves your capital.
That may be exactly where markets are today.
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